While the Bears have a commanding lead with only a few days left, there is still opportunity for NYU and Emory to challenge them. NYU plays two of their three games at home, and Emory plays both Carnegie Mellon (2-9) and Case Western (1-10), the two teams at the bottom of the UAA. Wash U has a more difficult schedule, playing all three games on the road against Brandeis (6-5), NYU, and Chicago (6-5).
To project each team's chances of winning the title, I first calculated each team's chance of winning each remaining game. To do this I used their offensive and defensive 2 point and 3 point field goal percentages, turnover rate, offensive rebounding rate, and free throw rate. I compared these rates to the league average, then projected the results to see how many points each team would score. After adding in home court advantage, I came upon a win probability.
I used stats from the entire season, so stats from non-conference games are included. Unfortunately I did not use a strength of schedule adjustment, but these numbers should be good enough for our purposes.
Here is the summary of results for Wash U, NYU, and Emory's remaining schedules:
(UPDATE: For full projections go to our stats page)
We can get a better sense of each team's remaining schedule by looking at their game by game win probabilities:
Wash U is favored in two of three games, but their winning percentages are not as high as NYU and Emory's for a few reasons. While the Bears sit atop the UAA, their full season numbers are strong but not dominant. The Bears are 3rd in the conference in both Points Scored per Possession and Points Allowed per Possession, but they face some match up problems over the next three games.
One of the Bears offensive strengths is their inside scoring. The Bears shoot 54% on two point shots, well above the league average of 50%. However, NYU and Brandeis are the top two teams in two point defense, as NYU holds its opponents to 42% shooting on 2 pointers and Brandeis holds its opponents to 47%. Wash U can have trouble scoring when they have to force three pointers, so the battle in the paint will be key.
The Bears are also an excellent offensive rebounding team, leading the UAA by rebounding 38% of their misses (league average 32%). But Wash U is facing two of the best defensive rebounding teams in the country, Chicago, whose opponents rebound a UAA-low 25% of their misses, and NYU, whose opponents' offensive rebounding rate is 29%, third in the conference behind Brandeis and Wash U. Wash U is used to a large rebounding margin, but Chicago and NYU will provide quite a challenge and could limit the Bears' second chance points.
On the defensive end, Wash U has struggled to contain opponents' three point shooting at times this year. In their 5 losses, the Bears' opponents shot 53-109 from three point range, a staggering 49%. NYU and Brandeis are the two best 3 point shooting teams in the country, shooting 42.0% and 41.6% respectively. In NYU's 14 point thumping of the Bears in January, NYU shot 10-19 from three. If either Brandeis or NYU have that kind of night, Wash U will be in trouble.
Luckily for the Bears, their two game lead puts them in good position to come out with at least a share of the title. Going through each possible scenario, the Bears have a 57% chance of winning the division outright and a 91% chance of winning at least a share of the title.
Things look good here for Wash U, but NYU also has a solid chance to clinch a share of the title. This of course depends greatly on who wins the matchup between NYU and Wash U in Manhattan on Sunday. If Wash U wins, they have 94% chance of winning the title outright and NYU is eliminated from contention. If NYU wins, then Wash U has a 47% chance of winning the title outright and NYU has a 51% chance of winning at least a share of the title.
The Bears have looked excellent in conference play all year, but they've had some flaws exposed over the season. They have a great chance of finishing at the top of the UAA standings, but they have to execute over their next three games if they want it to be an outright title.
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