2009 was a tough season for the Wash U Bears Football team. The program's 16 year streak without a losing record came to a close as the team went 4-6, including a 1-2 record in UAA play. They were outscored 253-194, as their opponents out-gained them on offense 3740 yards to 2846 yards and they had 28 turnovers compared 21 takeaways.
However, looking to 2010, the Bears are in position to turn things around and improve upon last year's record. With a strong core of returning offensive players and some solid returning defensive players, including Second-Team All-American cornerback Brandon Brown, the Bears have a good chance to return to a .500 or better record and compete for a UAA title.
To evaluate the Bears' potential for 2010, we will look at each unit for the team, starting with the offense, then going to the defense before finishing up with special teams.
Part One: OFFENSE
Quarterback
Last year WU started the season with Mitchel Bartel (’11) as the starting quarterback, hoping he could fill the shoes of Buck Smith (’09), who started for WU in ’07 and ’08, completing 55.9% of his passes for an average of 5.92 yards per attempt, while throwing TDs on 7.1% of his attempts and interceptions on 7.4%. Bartel struggled early, throwing INTs on the first two drives of the season.
Coach Larry Kindbom showed that he was willing to switch QBs at will, putting Steve Sherman (’12) in for the rest of the game. Sherman finished the game going 9-19 with a pick and a TD. After that opening game, Sherman became the starter for the rest of the season.
Sherman was a serviceable QB throughout the year, completing 53.3% of his passes with 3.5% TDs and 3.5% INTs. With Buck Smith graduated, the Bears threw on just 43% of offensive plays compared to 52.6% of plays in 2008. This coincided with a more conservative air approach, as Sherman threw a TD or INT on less than half the percentage of possessions (7.0% to 14.5%) that Smith did in 07-08.
Sherman was clearly tentative to throw the ball down the field, as 66% of his completions were for 10 yards or less. He also struggled to get rid of the ball, being sacked on 10% of his dropbacks (D3 avg: 6%).
When Bartel was under center, he was able to avoid the sacks (3%) and got the ball deeper down the field (54% of completions less than 10 yards), but his interception problems were deadly (8% of pass attempts).
While Sherman had problems with sacks, he was able to use his athleticism to run out of the Pistol formation, a set that Coach Kindbom implemented with Sherman in mind. Not including sacks, Sherman ran for 158 yards on 36 carries for an average rush of 4.39 yards. On first down, when plays designed for him to run are more likely than on other downs, Sherman ran for 5.40 yds/carry. He was least effective on third downs, running for 3.57 yds/carry, probably due to being in more scrambling situations instead of set running plays.
If Sherman can improve in 2010 then Wash U will be quite content with their QB situation. He must become more comfortable on deeper passes in order to open up the field and make some bigger plays. He has shown himself to be an effective runner at times, but he must do a better job of using his athleticism to avoid sacks. If he can complete deeper passes and improve on his pocket presence, Sherman will be a valuable member of Wash U’s offensive attack.
Running Back
On the opening drive of WU’s 2009 opener against Greenville, Matt Glenn, the Bears’ leading rusher in 2008 injured his knee, forcing him to leave the game. After attempting to return to the game in the second quarter, he came out and spent the rest of the game on the sideline. Taking his place was Jim O’Brien, who shared the ball-carrying duties with Glenn in 2008, finishing second on the team with 308 yards on 90 carries and tied with Glenn for the team lead with 4 rushing touchdowns.
With Glenn injured, O’Brien had a chance to prove his ability as a #1 back. In next game, O’Brien ran for 143 yards and a touchdown on 28 carries, helping the offense score 41 points and defeat Westminster. O’Brien was the Bears’ #1 back for the rest of the season as he went from taking the ball on 28% of WU’s carries in 2008 to 48% in 2009. He also raised his yards per carry rate from 3.4 to 5.2, which was integral in the Bears’ team yds/car going from an abysmal 2.5 in 2008 to a much more respectable 3.8 in 2009.
O'Brien scored 6 of the Bears’ 15 rushing TDs (40%), which is impressive considering that he only took the ball on 38% of WU’s carries within the 3 yard line, the area in which they scored 9 of their 15 rushing TDs (60%). He was the team’s most effective goal line back, scoring on 43% of his carries within the 3, while his teammates scored on just 27%.
O'Brien's 5.2 yd/car average was powered by a consistent attack, with nearly a sixth of his rushes going for exactly 4 yards. He was able to break runs open on occasion, running for 15 or more yards on 5% of his carries, but his main value was in his ability to keep the drive going with a decent run, as he went for at least 3 yards on 72% of his carries. In comparison, the rest of the team ran for 4 yards or more on just 35% of their carries.
O’Brien was able to contribute on all downs. 55% of his carries came on first down, and he was averaged 5.4 yards on those carries. On second downs, he was able to acquire an average of 86% of the yards needed to get a first down. O’Brien was also able to earn a first down on 63% of his third/fourth down carries, making him a significantly more effective short distance back than WUs other options, as the other backs converted just 34% of such opportunities.
While the other backs did have a tougher task ahead of them, having to go an average of 5.84 yards for the first down compared to O’Brien’s 4.21 avg yards to go, the difference in yds/car (4.95 to 3.25) was still drastic enough to indicate that O’Brien really was the most effective third-down-runner.
O’Brien will be returning for his Senior Year, and he should see over 50% of the carries in 2010. Since Glenn (63 carries in ’09) and Greg Lachaud (19 carries) graduated in May, the secondary load will fall on Senior Sam Kentor, who ran for 39 yards and 2 TDs on 11 carries and Clay Reed, a Junior who ran for 23 yards on 10 carries.
WU will also likely start to utilize sophomore Chris Castellucio, who played the most out of the freshman class in 2009 as an effective member of the Special Teams squad, returning 20 Kickoffs for a total of 389 yards.
Wide Receivers
On the other side of the Bears’ passing attack, there were six Bears that caught 10 or more passes in 2009. These six accounted for 78% of the team’s completions and 83% of the aerial yardage. While Wash U will return 4 of these 6 players, both Matt Mangini, the team’s #2 receiver, and Greg Lachaud, the team’s H-Back, have graduated.
Mangini led the team with 13.7 yards per reception and was second on the team in both catches (21) and yards (288). While he was dynamic enough to stretch the field and get extra yards, he was fifth out of the six main receivers in reception%, catching just 46% of the ball thrown to him.
Lachaud played out of the H-back position, catching a respectable 56% of passes thrown to him while earning enough yards after the catch to average 10.5 yds/rec and to score 2 TDs.
Wash U will be returning their top receiver, Tom Gulyas, who led the team in Receptions, Yards, TD, and caught 58% of the passes thrown to him, good for second on the team and first among Wide Receivers. Running back Jim O’Brien was able to bring down an impressive 91% of the passes, making him a very good check-down option for QB Steve Sherman. He was only able to get 6.1 yds/rec, but that is expected when only taking dump-off passes.
Austin Morman and Easton Knott also played a significant role in the passing attack. Morman, who is also one of the best punters in Division III, pulled down 52% of the passes thrown to him for an average of 11.5 yds/rec. Knott was able to muster 12.4 yds/rec, but his 36% reception rate left something to be desired. Despite being third on the team in times thrown to, he was just sixth in receptions.
In 2010, Gulyas will be a senior while Morman and Knott will both be juniors. Gulyas should continue to be the #1 target and has to potential to be an All-UAA wideout. If Knott can improve his reception rate, the Bears’ will have a solid triumvirate of receivers to go along with Jim O’Brien coming out of the backfield.
Michael Weiss, who will also be a junior in 2010, should see some more playing time with Mangini gone. Weiss caught 8 of the 14 passes thrown to him last year, a good start for a player who will have many more opportunities in 2010.
Offensive Line
In 2009, the Bears used four different lineups for their offensive line. The most common was the one they used for the last five games of the season: sophomores Joe Rhein and Phil Stoecker, juniors David Mackey and J.J. Gotlieb, and senior Jared Daiber. Rhein, Mackey, and Daiber were all named second-team all-UAA and Stoecker was an honorable mention. With four of their five starters returning in 2010, the line should be one of the Bears’ strongest units.
The Bears will need to replace Jared Daiber, who started all ten games in 2009, moving well out of the offensive guard position, often leading the way on screen passes and pulling on outside runs. WU will likely turn to Matt Hasmonek (’12) who started the first five games of the season at guard before falling to injury and being replaced by Gotlieb for the rest of the season.
Jon Mollet, the team’s other guard, played in seven games in ’09, the most of any freshman offensive lineman on the team. Between those two, the Bears should be able to fill that empty hole in their line. Adding a year of experience to each of their four returning starters should allow the team to have a cohesive attack, and this bunch will definitely help the Bears’ skill positions reach their potential.
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