WBB Projection: Wash U @ Brandeis

Forecasting the UAA Championship

With three games remaining in the UAA season, the Washington University Bears sit atop the conference with a 9-2 conference record and a two game lead on both Emory University (7-4) and New York University (7-4). If the Bears win just one of their three games, they will clinch at least a share of the title. If they win two or three games, they guarantee an outright championship.

While the Bears have a commanding lead with only a few days left, there is still opportunity for NYU and Emory to challenge them. NYU plays two of their three games at home, and Emory plays both Carnegie Mellon (2-9) and Case Western (1-10), the two teams at the bottom of the UAA. Wash U has a more difficult schedule, playing all three games on the road against Brandeis (6-5), NYU, and Chicago (6-5).

To project each team's chances of winning the title, I first calculated each team's chance of winning each remaining game. To do this I used their offensive and defensive 2 point and 3 point field goal percentages, turnover rate, offensive rebounding rate, and free throw rate. I compared these rates to the league average, then projected the results to see how many points each team would score. After adding in home court advantage, I came upon a win probability.

I used stats from the entire season, so stats from non-conference games are included. Unfortunately I did not use a strength of schedule adjustment, but these numbers should be good enough for our purposes.

Here is the summary of results for Wash U, NYU, and Emory's remaining schedules:

(UPDATE: For full projections go to our stats page)

We can get a better sense of each team's remaining schedule by looking at their game by game win probabilities:

Wash U is favored in two of three games, but their winning percentages are not as high as NYU and Emory's for a few reasons. While the Bears sit atop the UAA, their full season numbers are strong but not dominant. The Bears are 3rd in the conference in both Points Scored per Possession and Points Allowed per Possession, but they face some match up problems over the next three games.

One of the Bears offensive strengths is their inside scoring. The Bears shoot 54% on two point shots, well above the league average of 50%. However, NYU and Brandeis are the top two teams in two point defense, as NYU holds its opponents to 42% shooting on 2 pointers and Brandeis holds its opponents to 47%. Wash U can have trouble scoring when they have to force three pointers, so the battle in the paint will be key.

The Bears are also an excellent offensive rebounding team, leading the UAA by rebounding 38% of their misses (league average 32%). But Wash U is facing two of the best defensive rebounding teams in the country, Chicago, whose opponents rebound a UAA-low 25% of their misses, and NYU, whose opponents' offensive rebounding rate is 29%, third in the conference behind Brandeis and Wash U. Wash U is used to a large rebounding margin, but Chicago and NYU will provide quite a challenge and could limit the Bears' second chance points.

On the defensive end, Wash U has struggled to contain opponents' three point shooting at times this year. In their 5 losses, the Bears' opponents shot 53-109 from three point range, a staggering 49%. NYU and Brandeis are the two best 3 point shooting teams in the country, shooting 42.0% and 41.6% respectively. In NYU's 14 point thumping of the Bears in January, NYU shot 10-19 from three. If either Brandeis or NYU have that kind of night, Wash U will be in trouble.

Luckily for the Bears, their two game lead puts them in good position to come out with at least a share of the title. Going through each possible scenario, the Bears have a 57% chance of winning the division outright and a 91% chance of winning at least a share of the title.

Things look good here for Wash U, but NYU also has a solid chance to clinch a share of the title. This of course depends greatly on who wins the matchup between NYU and Wash U in Manhattan on Sunday. If Wash U wins, they have 94% chance of winning the title outright and NYU is eliminated from contention. If NYU wins, then Wash U has a 47% chance of winning the title outright and NYU has a 51% chance of winning at least a share of the title.

The Bears have looked excellent in conference play all year, but they've had some flaws exposed over the season. They have a great chance of finishing at the top of the UAA standings, but they have to execute over their next three games if they want it to be an outright title.

Wash U Basketball Doubleheader Sunday at 12pm

12PM CST: Wash U Men vs NYU

2PM CST: Wash U Women vs NYU

ABC Article About Wash U Women's B-Ball Win Streak

Check out this interesting article here about the 81-game win streak by Washington University's Women's Basketball Team from 1998-2001. The team, hot off last year's National Championship, recently began its season and KWUR Sports will be broadcasting every home game live all season long.

Highlights & Summary: Wash U 36, Westminster 6

Last night at Francis Field, the Wash U Bears defeated the Westminster (MO) Blue Jays, 36-6. This put the Bears at 2-2, getting them back to .500 and putting them at 2-0 at home for the season.

The game started out slowly, with neither team scoring in the first 25 minutes. With 8 minutes left in the second half, Westminster inexplicably put their quarterback, Tyson Kankolenski in to punt. After looking like he might run with the ball, he punted it straight into the air and it fell out of bounds just nine yards past the Westminster line of scrimmage, giving Wash U the ball at their 43 yard line.

Wash U took advantage of this field position to go ahead, 3-0. After Westminster went 3 and out on their next possession, the Wash U offense drove 70 yards down the field, led by a 21 yard run by QB Steve Sherman and a 29 yard reception by WR Tom Gulyas. Sophomore RB Chris Castelluccio ran for a 3 yard touchdown and WU went up 10-0, a lead that they took into halftime.

In the third quarter, the Bears continued their special-teams dominance, blocking a Jake Hilton punt and recovering it deep in Westminster territory, allowing the offense to start the drive in the red zone. Sherman wasn't able to take advantage of the fantastic field position as he threw three incomplete passes. But Eric Chalifour was able to nail his second field goal of the game, a 33-yarder that put Wash U up 13.

On the kickoff following the field goal, DE John Schneider forced Westminster returner Kelvin Williams to fumble. Bears LB Ed Ferguson fell on the ball on the Blue Jays' 34 yard-line, giving the Wash U offense another short field. Sherman made another great run, scrambling for 16 yards to start the drive. On the next play, Sherman avoided pressure before hitting WR Drew Sexton in the corner of the end zone. Sexton made an amazing catch on the sideline, managing to reel in the ball and get a foot inbounds to give the Bears a 19-0 margin. Chalifour missed the extra point, but the damage was already done.

Westminster went 3-and-out again, and Wash U took over with good field position again, starting the possession at their own 44 yard line. After failing to convert on third and 2, Wash U faked the punt, direct snapping the ball to third-string QB Adam Banks, who found Gulyas wide open for 24 yard completion. Two plays later, Junior WR Easton Knott caught a 24 yard touchdown pass from Sherman, giving the Bears offense TD passes on back-to-back drives. Chalifour hit the extra point and WU extended their lead to 26-0.

The next two series yielded no scoring, and then on the second play of a drive, Westminster backup QB Corey Ward found their star receiver, Carl Givens, streaking down the sideline and completed the pass for an impressive 66 yard touchdown. Westminster's special teams woes continued, as a botched snap on the PAT attempt held the score at 26-6.

With 7:50 left in the game, as things seemed to be slowing down, Wash U RB Daniel Grimm busted through the line on a simple dive play, beating the Westminster defense for a 42 yard touchdown run. One the first play of Westminster's drive following the touchdown, Ward threw an interception that Kyle Larkin returned all the way to Westminster's 13 yard line. Chalifour hit another field goal, giving the Bears a 36-6 lead that ended up being the final score.

New Feature: Stats Page

We have added a new section to the site, our Statistics page, where you can view up-to-date stats that go more in depth than your normal collection of stats. These numbers are calculated by KWUR Staff to give extra insight into Bears Sports. Our announcers use much of this information for their analysis, and now you can see the stats yourself!

So far we've added 2010 Football, 2009 Football, and both Men's and Women's 2009-10 Basketball.

Here's a sample:

2010 Football (Through September 19th)

WUSTL Sports Summer in Review

Even with the student body off campus for the summer, there has still been some action involving WUSTL sports teams. We'll get you updated so you can go into the school year knowing what's going on!

Men's Tennis

On May 30th, senior John Watts becomes Wash U's first singles champion by defeating Emory University's Chris Goodwin 6-1, 6-2. Earlier that week, Wash U's Men's Team fell in the National Semifinals to #1 Middlebury, the team that went on to win the title.

Women's Tennis

The Women's team lost to University of Chicago in the third round of the playoffs, failing to upset the team that ended up finishing fourth in the nation. Freshman Kate Klein was named the ITA DIII National Freshman of the Year, the first Bear to ever win that award. Klein lost in the first round of the singles tournament as she faced a tough challenge in the bracket's #5 seed.

Baseball

On May 25th, Coach Ric Lessmann announced his retirement after 17 years as the Bears' head coach and 45 as a collegiate coach. The winningest coach in team history, his decision to retired was based mainly on health reasons. In July, Steve Duncan was hired as the new head coach of the team. He comes from an assistant coaching job at John Hopkins, a team that finished 5th in Division III in 2010.

Women's Soccer

On August 12th, the Women's Soccer team was voted 2nd in the NSCAA pre-season poll. The team finished 2nd in the nation last year after losing to Messiah College in the National Championship game. The Bears are returning 62% of their games started, 57% of their goals, and 64% of their assists.

Men's Soccer

The Men's Soccer team was named the #2 team in the conference by the UAA coaches in their pre-season poll. The team went 9-7-3 last year, ending the season 4th in the UAA with a 3-4-0 conference record. They return 75% of their games started, 52% of their goals scored, and 78% of their assists. While they lost their leading goals scorer, John Hengel ('10), they are returning defenders Harry Beddo and Randall Schoen, who were both first team last year.

Women's Volleyball

Yesterday the Women's Volleyball team, fresh off a National Championship in 2009, received all 24 first-place votes in the AVCA top-25 poll. The team returns five starters, including junior Lauren Budde, the Most Outstanding Player of last year's NCAA tournament and sophomore Kelly Pang, who was named AVCA Freshman of the year. Junior Kristen Thomas and sophomores Marilee Fisher and Drew Hargrave will also return as starters for the Bears, who are in great position to repeat as champs for third time in four years.